Expert Interviews 7: Hypotheticals

Case—use the following:

(Side note: If your student thought of a good company/product/service in the warm-up, and they will have their next classes with you, use their example. Otherwise, use the case provided.)

• Imagine the year is now 2006.
• Your client is Spotify—newly founded in 2005.
• Your job is to build a pricing model for the new paid service (pricing is Consulting 101, so students should have no problem with this).
  • Up to now, Spotify has been free to use but ad-supported.
• How would you build a pricing model for such a service?

​​A. Find out why

Discuss the following phrases:

1. Why's that?—Expecting a short answer (very direct).
2. How come?—Expecting a slightly longer answer (seems slightly nicer).
3. Could you explain how you arrived at that? / Could you take me through your reasoning?—Expecting a longer answer.
   • NOTE: when getting an explanation, you figuratively travel from point A to B to C, so phrases often use travel-related language, e.g., arrived and take me through.
4. This is interesting. I'd like as much background as you can give me.—Expecting the longest answer.

Practice: Ask your teacher how long they think it'll take the innovation to catch on.

• Spotify's new paid service. How long to 10 million paid subscribers? 

Any number your student says, you say double.

Then the student asks why.

Student: [e.g., estimates 1–2 years to establish Spotify's customer base]. 
Teacher: I predict that it will take 3–5 years.
Student: [e.g., "3–5 years? Can you explain how you arrived at that?"]
Teacher: New products typically have a low adoption rate right at the beginning. In this area, only 13.5% of users are early adopters. 
Student: [e.g., "This is interesting. I'd like as much background on adoption rates as you can give me."] 

For Spotify's actual (not predicted) adoption rate, see this graph.

If your student wants details about tech adoption rates, you can use this graph. 

B. Explain your reasoning

Explanations depend on context. 

(Side note: If your student thought of a good company/product/service in the warm-up, and they will have their next classes with you, use their example. Otherwise, continue to use Spotify.)

Ask if the student has used the following phrases, or if they have other ways of comparing two ideas. 

1. We see Spotify as being like [Napster] because [...]
2. Think about what happened with [iTunes]. They went from [A] to [B].
3. A good analogy is the [...] market
4. I assume you're familiar with [...]. Would you say that's an appropriate model?

Practice: Compare your innovation with a similar, proven idea. 

You can compare Spotify with Napster and iTunes. 

• Spotify—limitless on-demand music streaming service; paid or ad-supported. 
• Napster—limitless on-demand music downloading service; facilitates free, illegal downloads.
  • Founded in 1999; shut down in 2001.
  • 80 million users at the peak.
• iTunes—huge library of music available as paid downloads.
  • Created in 2001. 
  • 500 million songs sold by July 2005.
• We see Spotify as being like Napster because both offer limitless on-demand music.

Example: 

• So think about what happened with Napster. They went from being founded to having 80 million users in just 2 years!
• Of course, Napster is a free service. 
• So another good analogy is the paid download market, as in iTunes. 
• In the first 3 days after their release in October 2003, over a million songs were sold! And by that December, they'd sold 25 million. In 2 years, they reached 500 million.
• Would you say that's an appropriate model?

C. Ask if your idea would work

This is about expressing likelihood, and the difference between:

1. imaginary/unlikely events;
2. realistic chances, or certainties (in uncertain timeframes); and
3. definite results.

Students struggle with the distinction between #1 and #2, as well as "if" and "when".

1. If we could solve [the problem], what would happen? 
   • Likelihood: using "could" and "would" is hypothetical and imaginary. 
     • We don't know if it's possible. (If the science existed and we could solve the problem, then what would happen?)
2. If we solve [the problem], what will happen? 
   • Likelihood: using "if" and "then" is realistically possible.
     • We think it's possible, but we don't know when. (If we put resources into solving the problem, it can be solved sometime in the future.) 
3. When [the problem] is solved, what will happen?
   • Likelihood: it will be solved at some point. It's a certainty.
     • We know it can be solved, and we know when. (We've put resources into solving the problem.)

Practice: Using the example of Spotify in 2006, ask the expert about the following hypothetical situations.

Read (or for lower-levels, copy and paste) the italics below.

Be sure your student asks with the right level of probability (from the grammar above).

1. Now: all users on free, ad-supported service.
   We'd like to know what would happen if we convert the majority of users from free to paid service in 1 year.
   • E.g.: If we could convert the majority of users from free to paid service in 1 year, then what would happen?
2. Now, funding is a little tight. 
   We'd like to know what growth would happen if we get angel investors to provide enough funding. 
   • E.g.: If we could get angel investors to provide enough funding, then what growth rate would you predict?
3. From 2004 to 2005, iTunes grew by 37%. That growth held stable for most of the decade.
   What if we grow as fast as iTunes?
   • E.g.: If we grow as fast as iTunes, then what?
4. We now have 3 million paid subscribers.
   There's a chance we'll reach 10 million paid subscribers this year.
   • E.g.: When we reach 10 million paid subscribers, what do you expect will happen?

Extras for the highest-level students

If you make a creative solution, you may be told it's impossible. 

1. I know this is outside the box, but what if...?
   • Outside the box—outside expected solutions. 
2. Let's just say, hypothetically, we could do it. What would happen?
   • Hypothetically—imagining a possibility rather than reality.
3. It's a bit of a pipe dream, but let's say the bottleneck could be solved. Then what kind of effects would it have?
   • Pipe dream—an unattainable hope.